Future Shortages.

[Maiser]

We all know about the current availability issues with certain tobaccos:
FVF, (or most SG for that matter) Penzance yadda yadda. To say anything more on that topic is like whistling in a hurricane.

So, my question for you, gents, is this...

What do you think will be in short supply in the future? Will today's Union Square be tomorrow's FVF? Will today's Chelsea Morning be tomorrow's Penzance?

I'm already stocking up on those two...

 

[Midnight Blues]

Funny you should ask, I was going to order 2 tins of Union Square ( Fantastic Virginia )
last week from SmokingPipes and they were out of stock (2oz tins).

 

[Obelus]

...

 

[MisterE]

I was thinking about whether or not to reply, since I'm convinced that many, if not most, of our shortages are forum driven. But then I remembered that I really love Ennerdale flake, which is not and will not be a widely shared taste, and have enough in the cellar for a couple of years. So what the heck... especially since I'm stating the obvious: I think just about anything made by G.L. Pease is ripe for speculative and panic hoarding. Now that even SG's "Perfection" is selling out at some of the bigger vendors it's pretty obvious both that that particular vein is well tapped out and that hoarding behavior is focusing to a great extent on producers-- even on lesser or more specialized blends.

I totally agree. The SG FVF "shortage" came entirely from pages like this. One reader seeing that another is stocking up- "must be good, since EVERYONE is getting it... don´t want to be left out, even if I´ve never tried it!" And so the frenzy begins.... Those that only weeks before were asking about what Va was and what to try, are now cellaring 5 lbs of such-and-such so they´ll never EVER be caught short...

I never cease to be amazed at discovering things I never would have imagined- really good tobacco blends that get virtually no "exposure" whatsoever. Or rediscovering tried-and-true favorites after a long hiatus- and perhaps not enjoying what before was my old standby. Most of these new discoveries were impulsed by unavailability of what I was originally looking for. In other words, the shortage did me good in the end. Expanded my knowledge and tastes.

On the positive side, the internet and forums like these has been key in a resurgence of pipe smoking popularity. The hoarding phenomenon is very good for producers, and ebay resales of aged tobacco becoming a growing "internet cottage" industry, not to mention the estate pipe market as well.

I saw a single 50gtin of SGSL for sale at over $50 the other day on ebay. A POUND of this stuff goes for around $42 in bulk and will age just as surely. I would also say that the whole "aged tobacco" rage has been almost entirely propagated but the forums as well. It encourages hoarding. Hoarding is good for business.

Like Gordon Gecko said, "Greed is good", hahaha.

I

:lol: :lol:

 

[Jack Straw]

^Excellent post.

 

[GCook]

^ Yup, what he said. Bravo! Cut this one out and tape it on your wallet.

 

[Harlock999]

Ditto!

 

[utahpipeman]

I also agree!

 

[puros_bran]

I hope tobacco gets so scarce it hurts to even consider a tin..
No.. I hope it becomes totally unavailable on the market at any price...

Then, and it's still iffy.. but then and maybe then I can find someone willing to take all this damn Walnut people keep "Gifting" me. *******s!

 

[atwageman]

Its anybodys guess what will be the next shortage. I'm cellaring wide and deep on my favorite blends. Plus cellaring tried and true favorites by pipe smokers everywhere.

My wife and myself tag team when looking for hard to get blends.

 

[mark]

Hell, I've got a ton of tins I've never even tried,,,,don't even know if I like the stuff,,,keep topping off my bulk orders with a couple tins to get the free shipping,,,,then never get around to try the stuff cause I'm smoking up the bulk,,,let em all get scarce and out of production,,, I've got five pounds of homegrown burley and virginia I'm processing,,,nothing's going to make me crazy worrying over lack of hogwarts special brown unscented dark fired premium semiflake xx navy soapy rope in a sardine can,,, :lol!:

 

[Harlock999]

Hell, I've got a ton of tins I've never even tried,,,,don't even know if I like the stuff,,,keep topping off my bulk orders with a couple tins to get the free shipping,,,,then never get around to try the stuff cause I'm smoking up the bulk,,,let em all get scarce and out of production,,, I've got five pounds of homegrown burley and virginia I'm processing,,,nothing's going to make me crazy worrying over lack of hogwarts special brown unscented dark fired premium semiflake xx navy soapy rope in a sardine can,,, :lol!:

That, is good stuff! :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

 

[Thomas Tkach]

After heavy analysis, the next shortage will be...




























...Lane 1Q

 

[DoverPipes]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!
Who's the idiot?!!??!!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rt=nc&nma=true&item=230576781683&si=7L0GFFzZKM765jgqQmW%252BbcJeAJI%253D&viewitem=&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWAX%3AIT

 

[MisterE]

Hell, I've got a ton of tins I've never even tried,,,,don't even know if I like the stuff,,,keep topping off my bulk orders with a couple tins to get the free shipping,,,,then never get around to try the stuff cause I'm smoking up the bulk,,,let em all get scarce and out of production,,, I've got five pounds of homegrown burley and virginia I'm processing,,,nothing's going to make me crazy worrying over lack of hogwarts special brown unscented dark fired premium semiflake xx navy soapy rope in a sardine can,,, :lol!:

:lol!: :lol!: :lol!:

ATTABOY!

 

[MisterE]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!
Who's the idiot?!!??!!

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rt=nc&nma=true&item=230576781683&si=7L0GFFzZKM765jgqQmW%252BbcJeAJI%253D&viewitem=&sspagename=STRK%3AMEWAX%3AIT

Yeah, and who´s gonna be laughin´all the way to the bank?!

I´m tellin´ya, it´s getting to be good business...

 

[Buddy Springman]

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!!!!!
Who's the idiot?!!??!! snip

Damn, I would've just gone and paid the what-I-thought-was-outrageous $70/lb retail for Marlin Flake. I don't think FVF has anything over Marlin.

And I don't think Stonehaven has anything over Dark Star (or even its bulk variant) as a dark VA. Their taste profile is different, the treacle thing. But "dark" is "dark" to my simple tastes.

Don't know what's going on...

Buddy

 

[innovador]

Shortage or not shortage, I wont be buying more than I can smoke within a year and only what I can get at reasonable prices. It is unbeliavable how one can fall for those marketing scams. I did fall for them with cigars years ago, I wont make same mistake with pipe tobacco now.

 

[NeroWolfe]

OK...Here is what we need to do....We form a secret BoB society for pipe tobacco monopolization. Then we:

1 - Identify those tobaccos that we dearly love and want to keep to ouselves.
2 - We then collectivley talk about how crappy those tobaccos are on all of the pipe websites, etc.
3 - At the same time, we select a group of tobaccos that are truly mediocre and could not care less about.
4 - We then collectively talk about how wonderful those tobaccos are on all of the same pipe websites, etc.
5 - The result: The masses buy the mediocre tobacco, and stay away from the truly good stuff, leaving it all to our secret group!!!

Wait a minute...I just thought of something!....Maybe this is already happening, and I am not a member of the secret club?!?!?!?!?

 

[Obelus]

Dang. Figured it out. Now what do we do?