Price forecast

[frumplestiltskin]

G'day brothers. I wanted to hear your take on the future availability of tobacco and the price forecast as well. I made a New Year's resolution not to buy any tobacco for 2011, and received an opinion that it was a very bad idea to buy later rather than sooner due to the inevitable increase of tobacco prices. I know that feelings may vary geographically; I live in the US and assume that it's my country's.. interesting.. priorities that might drive up prices. What are your thoughts? Should I stockpile now or will I be able to buy a tin for a reasonable fee 10 years down the road?

 

[Skip48]

All I know is that the government seems to attack with so called sin tax on the things we enjoy that may not be the best most heath things to do. I also know what Cigs use to cost and now they have gone up % wise so much more than pipe tobacco. I probably am not worried out as far as your are since my age and health is not prime, but even a few years out who know when they will push through more tax and hit us hard and I am sure you realize the deficit is running wild so what will they do? Of course it depends on who if in charge, but all go after the so called sin tax stuff. Guess I could be very wrong, but I can't see pipe tobacco tax or the price of tobacco getting less than it is now.

It's one of the places they can shoot at without making the majority mad.

Skip

 

[Jack Straw]

If the choice is clearcut between buying now and buying later, always buy now. Besides tax speculation, there's also the fact that most tobacco benefits from aging.

Who knows what it will be like in 10 years, I don't even want to think about it! Think about where tobacco was 10 years ago...you could get cartons of cigs for $24 in Virginia if I recall, didn't smoke a pipe then so can't say what a tin cost. Now I'm not sure what a carton of cigs is now, but I bet it's absurd.

 

[shootist51]

I have noted over the years that the cost of everything continues to rise. There seems to be a tendancy for most of us to concentrate on aquiring pipes, particularly when we first start in the hobby and there's nothing wrong with that, but the ongoing expense in the hobby is tobacco.

In the last few years there have been dramatic increases in the taxes we are assessed for using tobacco, and though even some of the anti's have started to say, "This is enough!", I forsee this trend continueing. Having said that, I would spend my smoking budget on tobacco, concentrating on blends that age well,ie., Virginias, VaPers, Lats, particularly as these are the blends I seem to enjoy the most.

If everything goes well, you will find yourself with a fine supply of smoking pleasure; if it all goes south, as I fear is a real posibility, you will not only have a stable supply, but may be able to realise a substantial return on your investment and if it all goes to hell, the primo trade goods in a collapseing society will be such things as tobacco, bullets, needles, etc.

If you read history, you will find that tobacco is the commodity that made it possible for the original 13 colonies to thrive.

 

[velveteagle]

The days of fair taxation are gone now. I can remember as a child that a person charging 13% interest was considered a loan shark.. Greed has taken over moral behavior now in such a degree that this economy just charges more for less.. They sell less but want to make a killing on each sale.. Instead of charging less and having to move more inventory because they sell more. So we buy less for more and that feeds the greed machine. If it were fair then our money could buy a good amount of product and both party's would be satisfied in the trade for items for cash. But your money is not gaining buying power or worth so the downward spiral on its value but increasing with too high of taxes profit the money changers.. With this in mind find a good price if you can compare sellers.. Watch the inflated shipping and handling charges. You will not buy amounts of tobacco for less unless there is a sale. R.I.P. dear fair profit model...

 

[pistolero]

THIS:

and if it all goes to hell, the primo trade goods in a collapseing society will be such things as tobacco, bullets, needles, etc.

If you read history, you will find that tobacco is the commodity that made it possible for the original 13 colonies to thrive.

Yes sir. After the necessities shelter, water, enough to eat, people will want tobacco, coffee, etc. Liquor keeps forever, too!

 

[Greenleaf]

I just try not to think of these things anymore.

 

[utahpipeman]

Okay, I'll give a different perspective. That may ruffle some feathers and I'm sorry because I do hate to do that. Indeed, the views stated already are very popular on this site and I know my opinion is in the minority. This is what I believe though, and I want to get the other side out there.

Don't stockpile tobacco. If tobacco is going to become ulta-expensive or be outlawed, you will have ample time to react. I'm 48 and I too have been very frustrated by what has happened to several of my freedoms. However, when I compare my lifestyle to that of any of my ancestors, I'm way ahead. My Dad didn't get more than a week of vacation until I was in my teens and we sure as heck didn't fly anywhere. We had one car. For my grandfather, pipe smoking wasn't one of his luxeries, it was his only luxery. I could go on, but you get the idea. For the most part, we live pretty good lifestyles, even if they aren't quite as great as they were before the economies tanked. Give up your iphone, or satellite TV, or trip to Disney and you will have plenty of money for tobacco...and more time to smoke it. Prices are up, but honestly, $10 a tin is not so bad.

Everyone seems to be pissed off or afraid of something these days. Taxes, terrorism, communism, nuclear war, global warming, etc. For me, That is simply not a fun way to live. Stockpiling tobacco will not make anything better. Yeah, the world comes to an end and you will have tons of tobacco to trade. Sorry, but if we reach that state, all of your tobacco for trading will provide little comfort in the scope of life. Also, chances are that ten years from now, people are going to expect to sell all of their spare aged tobacco for a profit, but nobody will want it because they will be trying to get rid of their own spare tobacco. It'll be like trying to sell beanie babies. Nobody will need to buy tobacco for years, so farmers will stop growing it for a while and maybe after they grow something else long enough, they'll decide tobacco isn't worth growing anymore. Then tobacco will really be hard to get.

If you become another stockpiler, you'll just add to the hysteria/paranoia going on. The stockpilers are the reason you can't just go to a store and buy a tin of FVF or Penzance. They are the reason SP sold 4500 tins of Dunhill in a few days. Is life better like that? Fearing the sky falling every day and buying more tobacco than you can smoke in 5 years? Preventing other brothers of briar from smoking a tin of their favorite blend at a fair price? I say no! Laws and taxes aren't the biggest threat to the supply of my favorite tobaccos. Cellar kings are. Seriously.

So...relax. That's what pipe smoking is for. Put a few of your favorite tins away in case the stockpilers decide to go after it. Enjoy your pipe smoking.

 

[velveteagle]

Very well said Utah... I like how you opened that door to reason.. Makes sense to me in so many ways.. Good post... :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:
Chuck...

 

[utahpipeman]

Thanks Chuck!

 

[Hermit]

Very well said Utah... I like how you opened that door to reason.. Makes sense to me in so many ways.. Good post... :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:
Chuck...

Reason, my ass! :evil:
I'm ounces away from a lifetime supply. :bounce:

 

[pistolero]

will I be able to buy a tin for a reasonable fee 10 years down the road?

Don't count on it. My money is on NO. And a lot sooner than ten years, more like one or two IF we're lucky. A couple of years ago here I could buy a pack of cigs and a coke and get change back from a five dollar bill. A carton of Camels could be about $23 on sale. That won't happen again. And those outrageous tax rates they put on cigs will make it to pipe tobacco sooner than later, it's for the chil'ren after all.

Look on tobaccoreviews.com, the prices people quote they paid two to three years ago for pipe tobacco is around half of what I can find it for now.

 

[mark]

Hell, I'm not afraid of the sky falling, but I AM interested in enjoying some well aged tobacco. SP won't ever be selling ten year old tins for $10. I guess I'll plan ahead and have some. Bulk is cheap and I'm providing jobs for the tobacco industry, Mason jar factory workers, and UPS. When I die I'll have the remaining cellar buried with me,,,500 years from now some archeologist will conclude a twentyfirst century man was taking his sacred weed to the next world with him.

 

[utahpipeman]

I AM interested in enjoying some well aged tobacco.

That is a reason that I have no problem with at all.

 

[Harlock999]

I'm with Utah. $10 to $12 for a tin doesn't seem outrageous, and hoarding/aging more tobacco than one can consume seems...unnecessary? It kind of pains me to say that, because I'm usually all for quantity (especially when it comes to pipes), but speculating on a vintage tobacco market of the future...I just don't know. Somethings just seem better enjoyed now, today. There are enough, more serious things to worry about later. Life's too short!

 

[Skip48]

Heck I am 62 with a body of much older so who knows for how long I will be here, but in the mean time I see no reason to not stock pile some with a double edge reason. One to avoid what may come from who knows what tax and government interventions they can come up with, but even if nothing happens at all and it doesn't go up a dime, the age thing will make it way more than worth it for me.

I am putting the reasons in order by first the age thing and next what ever may happen price wise. I mean just look at how hard it is to get some blends/flakes, like FVF?

Skip

 

[Jack Straw]

Honestly, I don't think anything I could spend my money on could provide me with more enjoyment dollar for dollar. That's how I see it, as a hobby. As my friend Moe says, "When I take out my pipes for an evening session, it's pure joy." You can't put a price on that. In a society dominated by ways to spend money that don't really do anything for you at the end of the day, the pipe seems like one of the few things you can focus yourself on that actually does good for your mind and spirit (besides the obvious). TV isn't helping anyone, iphones are just dragging us more and more into the digital whirlpool of constant communication; it's the "age of distraction." And the pipe is the opposite of distraction. It commands focus, and calmness. It teaches patience, and rewards it. It encourages thought and contemplation, in a time when so much is presented before us that we have little time to think. So I don't see it as such a bad thing to spend my pocket money on it. It's honestly one of the better decisions I have made.

(I realize after typing this that it's pretty tangential, but I like it so I'm leaving it )

 

[Hermit]

Three questions:
1) Are prices going down?
2) Will taxes go down, or up?
3) How the heck do you get to smoke ten year
old tobacco if ya don't have a ten year supply?
Any more questions?

 

[utahpipeman]

Three questions:
1) Are prices going down?
2) Will taxes go down, or up?
3) How the heck do you get to smoke ten year
old tobacco if ya don't have a ten year supply?
Any more questions?

Yes, but:

1) Prices and taxes apply to everything. Should I buy 1,000 gallons of gasoline and fill my basement with canned food?
2) What if your tastes change? Yes. You can sell some, but not that jarred stuff that you have. Not to mention reselling 100 pounds of tobacco would be a pain in the butt.

 

[utahpipeman]

How the heck do you get to smoke ten year
old tobacco if ya don't have a ten year supply?
Any more questions?

Not to start a whole new debate either, but I've had my share of aged tobacco. Just opened a tin of 8 year old EMP last week to compare it to the new stuff, as a matter of fact. Age plays a factor, but in my opinion it is waaay overstated. I know that statement will blow some minds around here, but that's reality. I'm not knocking aging. It's a bonus. Newer tins are still quite enjoyable.

Look, people have all kinds of justification for what they do. You have yours. I have mine. I just wanted to make sure Frumplestiltskin had different points of view to help him make a choice. Mission accomplished.